Minnesota's Indian gambling tribes, which have spent more than $6 million on political donations since 2002, say an off-reservation expansion of casino gambling would be an epic defeat.

Backed by a battalion of 30 lobbyists and deploying a multimillion-dollar political war chest, Minnesota's Indian gambling tribes wield influence at the State Capitol in both obvious and subtle ways.

But this year, with a Vikings stadium on the line, the tribes' formidable political clout is likely to face one of its fiercest tests.

Gambling revenue could play a pivotal role in the stadium financing proposals under scrutiny at the Capitol, and no one is certain how far Gov. Mark Dayton and GOP legislative leaders will go -- if at all -- in breaking up the lucrative monopoly the tribes have had on slot machines for the past two decades.

At stake in the looming struggle are huge sums. Gambling at Minnesota's 18 Indian casinos totals an estimated $15 billion a year and returns $600 million to the casinos. The gambling compacts that the tribes signed with the state have no expiration date and require no sharing of revenue.

The tribes, which have spent more than $6 million on political donations since 2002, say an off-reservation expansion of casino gambling would be an epic defeat. They are going to great new lengths to make sure that does not happen in the legislative session that opens Jan. 24.

Long close to the DFL Party, the powerful lobby has been courting allies among Republicans and lacing those friendships with tribal PAC donations. When 2011 campaign finance disclosures are filed in the next several weeks, for example, they will reveal a fresh flow of cash to GOP organizations, said John McCarthy, president of the Minnesota Indian Gaming Association (MIGA).

"It's a little bit of a new day," McCarthy said. "It's not so much that we won't support the Democrats, but there is also now room to support the other side to some degree."

Capitol insiders see other telling changes. In November, the prominent GOP aide Cullen Sheehan was hired by Lockridge Grindal Nauen, the Minneapolis law and lobbying firm that has long represented the state's Indian gambling industry. Sheehan was chief of staff to the Minnesota Senate Republican caucus and, before that, a campaign manager for Republican U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman.

Sheehan's move is but one of the many behind-the-scenes connections for the tribes. In the governor's office, they have close ties to Dayton's deputy chief of staff, Michele Kelm-Helgen. She once worked as a lobbyist at North State Advisers, whose president is Andy Kozak, one of the premier strategists for Indian gambling.

Intrigue also has surrounded the Republican-led, Indian-supported Citizens Against Gambling Expansion (CAGE). It's a nonprofit with an operating budget of more than $115,000 a year. Tribal leaders support CAGE, but McCarthy said he doesn't know how much money they have given.

The group is led by influential Republican operative Jack Meeks and, until last year, counted Tony Sutton, the former Republican Party chairman, as a member of its board.

Tribal leaders say that while they work the Legislature aggressively, they abide by the same rules as every other constituency at the Capitol.

"When we go into the session, we go in to win," said McCarthy, whose association represents 10 tribes from across the state.

Opponents say the tribal lobby has grown bigger than the system, fueled by streams of money that cannot be fully tracked. They also accuse the group of smearing opponents with racial politics and funding opposition campaigns to defeat elected officials who cross them.

"I call it the casino cartel. They are the big gorilla in the state," said Dick Day, a former state Senate minority leader who also has lobbied for Racino Now, a group that wants slot machines at Canterbury Park and Running Aces horse tracks, sharing revenue with the state.

In dollar figures alone, the tribes' influence is sizable. In direct political contributions, the top five tribal PACs have outspent Education Minnesota, the huge teachers union, in at least eight of the past 10 years. In addition, the tribes give money to federal campaigns and spend millions a year on lobbyists and lobbying expenses. State records show that the four largest state tribal PACs, along with MIGA, spent $12.7 million to cover the Capitol from 2002 through 2010 on all issues.

Over the years, anyone trying to cut in on Minnesota's casino market has felt the weight of the tribes' political influence.

One lobbying blitz in the mid-1990s went all the way to the White House. Three economically distressed Wisconsin tribes proposed a casino in Hudson, Wis., just 50 miles from Mystic Lake Casino in Shakopee, the crown jewel of tribal gambling in Minnesota. Enrolled members of the Shakopee Mdewakanton Sioux have received annual per capita payments sometimes exceeding $500,000, and any new casino in the metro area would diminish Mystic Lake's market share.

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